Sanders campaign has indicated at least 27 times they would, could or must win tomorrow
The New York Democratic Primary has been called a “must-win” for Bernie Sanders, who needs a “landslide victory” won by “huge margins” to have a chance of significantly cutting into Hillary Clinton’s delegate lead. To be sure, Sanders and his campaign have set the stage for tomorrow’s Democratic Primary in New York, indicating at least 27 times something to effect that he would, could or must win tomorrow, noting the importance of doing well in New York. Demonstrating how hard they are running in New York, the Sanders campaign is set to outspend the Clinton campaign by more than $3 million on television advertising.
27 TIMES: BERNIE SANDERS OR CAMPAIGN SAID THEY WOULD, COULD, OR MUST WIN NEW YORK PRIMARY
- April 17: Bernie Sanders: “And with your help on Tuesday, we’re gonna win right here in New York state.” [Sanders remarks, Brooklyn, 4/17/16]
- April 13: Bernie Sanders: “I believe we’re going to win here in New York City, and we’re going to win here in New York State.” “SANDERS: I believe we’re going to win here in New York City, and we’re going to win here in New York State.” [Sanders Remarks At TWU Endorsement Press Conference, 4/13/16]
- April 13: Tad Devine: “I think we’re gonna win.” [MSNBC, 4/13/16]
- April 13: Bernie Sanders: “I believe we’re gonna win here in New York next Tuesday.” [Sanders remarks, Washington Square Park, 4/13/16]
- April 13: Sanders superdelegate: Winning New York is crucial for Sanders. “Sanders supporter Larry Murakami, a first-time superdelegate who is vice chairman of the Alaska Democratic Party, said he still believes Sanders can switch some superdelegates if he overtakes Clinton in pledged delegates before the convention but that other scenarios are harder to imagine. ‘If he can win the delegate count he can win,’ Murakami said. To that end, Murakami said New York’s contest on Tuesday is crucial. ‘It’d be best if he wins both New York and California.’” [Bloomberg, 4/13/16]
- April 12: Bernie Sanders: “We will win a major victory here in New York next Tuesday.” [Sanders remarks, Syracuse, 4/12/16]
- April 12: Bernie Sanders: “If there is a large voter turnout a week from today here in New York state, we are gonna win here as well.” [Sanders remarks, Rochester, 4/12/16]
- April 10: Bernie Sanders: “Our plan right now is to win this thing. And again, I think we are looking pretty good in New York.” “JOHN DICKERSON: So what Kennedy did was he contested the actual nomination in order to get his message across. Is that something you’ve contemplated? SENATOR BERNIE SANDERS: Well, our plan right now is to win this thing. And again, I think we are looking pretty good in New York, in Pennsylvania, in California, in Oregon.” [Face the Nation, CBS, 4/10/16]
- April 5: Jeff Weaver: “I think we can win it.” “Then, we’re going to go to New York. New York is a tough fight, there’s no doubt about it. The Secretary, you know, has a lot of political support in New York, but I think we can win it.” [CNN Tonight, CNN, 4/5/16]
- April 5: Bernie Sanders: “I think we have we have a chance, an excellent chance, to win in New York.” [Andrea Mitchell Reports, MSNBC, 4/5/16]
- April 5: Bernie Sanders: “I think we can, and we are going to work very, very hard to make that happen.” “ANDREA MITCHELL: Can you win New York? SEN. BERNIE SANDERS: I think we can, and we are going to work very, very hard to make that happen.” [Andrea Mitchell Reports, MSNBC, 4/5/16]
- April 4: Bernie Sanders: “We win in New York State, we’re on our way to the White House.” SANDERS: “If there’s a large voter turnout, we will win here. If we win here, we’re gonna have a bounce going into New York state, where I think we can win. If we win in New York State, between you and me, I don’t want to get Hillary Clinton more nervous than she already is, she’s already under a lot of pressure. So don’t tell her this, but I think we win here, we win in New York state, we’re on our way to the White House.” [Sanders rally in Janesville, WI, 4/4/15]
- April 4: Tad Devine: “New York is very important.” “WOLF BLITZER: The week after New York, at the end of April, you have Pennsylvania, and a few other states, Maryland, for example, the Northeast, and he just said, Joel Benenson, that that’s the goal line. They think they can wrap it up by then. TAD DEVINE: Okay, well, they said in February that it would be over by March and now it’s April. Okay, so, I know, I mean listen, we’re going to work hard to compete. New York is very important. Tomorrow, in Wisconsin, it’s a big, pivotal day in this process. We think we can compete with her in Pennsylvania.” [Wolf, CNN, 4/4/16]
- April 1: Bernie Sanders: “We are going to win New York.” “A little more than two weeks ahead of the primary in his home state of New York, Bernie Sanders said Friday that his campaign would win the state, which is also the adopted home of Hillary Clinton. ‘We are going to win New York,’ the Vermont senator told ‘CBS This Morning’ in a segment teasing his longer sit-down interview with the hosts and his wife, Jane Sanders. Sanders noted the 18,000 people who attended his rally in the South Bronx on Thursday evening, calling it a ‘good start.’ ‘We’re going to do rallies all over the state, and I think we have a good shot at this,’ he said.” [Politico, 4/1/16]
- March 31: Bernie Sanders, asked if he’ll win NY: “Yes, we will.” “JOE TOOHEY: Will you win in New York? BERNIE SANDERS: Yes, we will.” [News at 10, Fox 5 (New York), 3/31/16]
- March 31: Bernie Sanders said he would have a lead in New York by Election Day. “BLANCA ROSA VILCHEZ: We began our interview with Sen. Bernie Sanders with the polls that show him losing in NY and winning in WI. BERNIE SANDERS: We are closing the gap and there were polls that had us 30pts down, we’re 12 pts down now and I think by Election Day we’ll be ahead.” [Noticiero Univision (Internal Translation), Univision, 3/31/16]
- March 25: Tad Devine: “We’re going to have to beat her in big battlegrounds […] even here in New York.” “TAD DEVINE: We’re going to have to have some big wins along the way. But we think we can do it, it’s going to take all the way to the end of the process. We decided after Nevada that going into Super Tuesday we had a choice, we could try to win as many delegates in as many states and probably lose almost every state, maybe not Vermont, or we could try to beat her in statewide races, we chose five that day-we won four- we chose three the next weekend-we won all three- we targeted Michigan- we won Michigan and we’re going to have to beat her in big battlegrounds tomorrow and coming up in places like Wisconsin and even here in New York.” [MSNBC Live, MSNBC, 3/25/16]
- March 17: Bernie Sanders said he had a “fighting chance” to win New York as part of “a path toward victory.” “STEVE IRVIN: Sanders admits he got hammered in the South and hammered again last Tuesday in the Midwest. but he believes he can make up ground in the western states, where he finds some of the most liberal voters in the country. BERNIE SANDERS (CLIP): We think we have a good chance to win in California, Oregon, state of Washington. We thing we have a fighting chance to win in New York State, Montana, in Utah and a number of other states. I’m not saying it’s going to be easy, but there is a path toward victory.” [KNXV/ABC 15, 3/17/16]
- March 16: Sanders strategist Tad Devine said he believed New York would play a “pivotal role in the nominating process.” “TAD DEVINE: If a frontrunner wants to keep those delegates in place I believe you need to continue to win and if you don’t win you are then going to be under pressure from your own people and your own delegates. I think the pressure that is going to build in the weeks and month ahead particularly if Bernie Sanders can get a winning streak that I believe he can get we look at the states that are coming onto the near horizon I see opportunities for victory in practically everyone of them: Here in Arizona, in Idaho, in Utah next week, in states like Alaska, Hawaii, in Washington state, in a big showdown state like Wisconsin, in early April, in Wyoming, even in New York where Bernie grew up and the state where Hillary represented as a Senator and a classic showdown state which has played a pivotal role in the nominating process in the past and I believe can do so again.” [Bernie Sanders Press Call, Soundcloud, 3/16/16]
- March 16: Tad Devine: “We just have to win some major showdowns, like in New York.” “‘We’re now entering a period where we think we’ll win most if not all of the contests before the April 19 primary in New York,’ said Tad Devine, a senior adviser to Mr. Sanders. ‘Regardless of how much momentum we have after Tuesday, the calendar is shifting in our favor. Now we just have to win some major showdowns, like in New York and New Jersey, to raise questions about whether she can really win the presidency.’” [New York Times, 3/16/16; Bernie Sanders Press Call, Soundcloud, 3/16/16]
- March 16: Weaver said New York was one of six states where “we’re going to have to do very well.” “If you look at the states to come, what our calculations show, is that we can, in fact, pass the Secretary in pledged delegates but there are going to be some important showdowns. Over the next few weeks here, we have six states where we’re going to have to do very well, including Arizona where I’m calling you from. And then after that, we’re going to have Wisconsin. Obviously a big showdown in Wisconsin. And then, ultimately, a big showdown in New York in April.” [Weaver remarks, Sanders Campaign Press Call, 3/16/16; 3:50]
- March 9: Nina Turner predicted a win in New York. “CRAIG MELVIN: What can Bernie Sanders do beyond delaying Clinton’s pivotal — her pivot, rather, to the general election? NINA TURNER: Well, it’s good to be with you, Craig. He’s going to do what he’s been doing, which is to continue to rally across this country. You know, giving the voters the voice. We still have many more states to go, Craig. And as you know, places like New York and California, we believe, are going to overwhelmingly support Senator Sanders. So, we’re going to keep on pushing. CRAIG MELVIN: New York? NINA TURNER: Yes. CRAIG MELVIN: You guys think — You’re predicting a win in New York? NINA TURNER: I’m hoping so. New York, California, absolutely.” [MSNBC Live, MSNBC, 3/9/16]
- March 8: Tad Devine pointed to New York as a “big showdown” where Sanders has “got to beat her.” “Sanders’ senior strategist Tad Devine did not dispute Mook’s claims that they need big wins to survive. ‘We know we’ve got to beat her in some big showdowns,’ he said, pointing to New York, where Clinton served as senator for eight years, as a prime target. ‘It’s his home state, too,’ Devine told POLITICO on Tuesday. ‘When we go to a place and spend ten days campaigning there, it’s going to be big.’” [Politico, 3/9/16]
- March 5: Tad Devine: “I think the guy from Brooklyn can beat her there and we’re gonna try really hard to do that.” “JOHN HEILEMANN: Tad, let me just push you a little bit on that. It is the case, as you know, in your party, you’re a famed delegate counter, your party with proportional representation, no winner-take-all states, the Clinton campaign came out today and said, look, we have a bigger lead right now than Barack Obama ever had over Hillary Clinton and Hillary Clinton couldn’t come back from that lead in 2008. So, just explain how it could be. What kind of victories you would need to score because you’d have to score not just victories but some pretty big victories to make up that gap. TAD DEVINE: Well, we are going to have to win and we are going to have to win in big states. But listen, as I said before, if we had the ’08 process and calendar, which was so heavily frontloaded, I think we’d be in big trouble. But we don’t. This race is gonna be a lot more like ’80 and ’84, where Kennedy-Carter and the Hart challenged the Mondale. It’s going to be a long race, we’re gonna play it out, we’re going to need to beat her in big states and I think we can. If you look at the calendar as we get through the next couple of weeks. We start to move to states like Washington state, Wisconsin, we go, I think we’ll have a big showdown in New York and I know that’s her home state and she’s represented it in the senate, but we do not concede New York to Hillary Clinton. I think the guy from Brooklyn can beat her there and we’re gonna try really hard to do that.” [MSNBC, 3/5/16]
- March 4: Sanders strategist Tad Devine said Sanders was “gonna have to win” big states “even, you know, a state like New York.” “BETSY FISCHER MARTIN: And you’re not gonna have to just win a couple of these upcoming states. You’re gonna have to really, really beat her. TAD DEVINE: Well, you know, we are gonna have to win– BETSY FISCHER MARTIN: Decisively, right? TAD DEVINE: –a number of these states, particularly some of these big states by enough of a margin to get a delegate advantage. I mean, I concede that. But you know, there’s a lot of states left and there’s a lot of big states left. I mean, California is the most conspicuous example, but even, you know, a state like New York. And I think there’s a lot of states out there — Wisconsin, Washington state — where we have the potential of doing what we did yesterday in Minnesota and Colorado, which is to win a pretty decisive victory.” [Bloomberg, Masters in Politics podcast, 3/4/16]
- March 4: Tad Devine: “We’re gonna have to beat her in some decisive battleground states. Big states, like probably New York.” “We’re gonna have to beat her in a number of upcoming states, and we’re gonna have to beat her in some decisive battleground states. Big states, like probably New York, her own home state, and a state like California at the end of the process.” [Bloomberg, Masters in Politics podcast, 3/4/16]
- March 2: Tad Devine: “We think in places like California and New York even where we intend to compete fully and other big states that we can make up advantage.” “She has a substantial advantage. We believe we can make that up between now and June and we believe—he have, you know—we have run some scenarios as late as this morning based on what we think we can do in upcoming states that will get us to a pledged delegate advantage by the time we finish the voting in June. And it’s not going to come all in one place, we don’t have that kind of system the Democratic Party but we think in places like California and New York even where we intend to compete fully and other big states that we can make up advantage.” [Devine remarks, Sanders Campaign Breakfast, 3/2/16; 27:45:00]
SANDERS HAS SPENT MORE MONEY ON NEW YORK TV THAN CLINTON
Bernie Sanders is set to outspend Hillary Clinton by over $3 million dollars on advertising in New York. “Democrats account for nine of every 10 dollars spent on the state’s airwaves. And, once again, Bernie Sanders is outspending Hillary Clinton: Sanders is set to spend nearly $7 million before next Tuesday, more than Clinton’s $3.7 million. The massive spending comes as Sanders is attempting to close a double-digit deficit in public polls – a margin that threatens to make the gap between Clinton and Sanders in pledged delegates virtually insurmountable for the Vermont senator.” [Politico, 4/16/16]
Between April 5 and April 14, the Sanders campaign outspent the Clinton campaign 2 to 1 on TV advertising. “The Clinton campaign has spent $448,000 on cable ads and $773,000 on broadcast TV in the New York City market since the week of April 5, according to CMAG. The Sanders camp has spent more — $1 million on cable and $1.4 million on broadcast. The research firm does not track how cable ads are targeted, so it’s unclear what portion of the cable buys are addressable.” [Ad Age, 4/14/16]
SANDERS “HAS TO WIN BIG” IN “MUST-WIN” NEW YORK
Mo Elleithee: Bernie Sanders “has to win big […] Nothing else matters.” “Way past the point for this. He has to win big if he has any chance of narrowing delegate gap. Nothing else matters. The Hill @thehill Sanders plays expectations game in NY” [4/17/16, 7:16 p.m. EST]
Politico’s Glenn Thrush: “Let’s not fall for ‘moral victory’ BS in NYC primary. Bernie needs BIG win to make up for 200+ pledged delegate gap.” “Let’s not fall for ‘moral victory’ BS in NYC primary. Bernie needs BIG win to make up for 200+ pledged delegate gap Sanders plays expectations game in NY” [4/17/16, 4:10 p.m. EST]
Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza: Bernie Sanders “has to win big states BIG.” “To overcome Clinton’s pledged delegate lead, Sanders has to win big states BIG. As Mook notes, Sanders needs to win 60 percent (or higher) of the vote in New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and California. Possible? Sure. Likely? Not even close — especially when you consider (as Mook does) that the only two states where Sanders has achieved that margin are his home state and one that directly borders it.” [The Fix, Washington Post, 4/5/16]
David Axelrod: “Bernie Sanders would have to win landslide after landslide starting in New York” to overcome Hillary Clinton’s pledged delegate lead. “DAVID AXELROD: The fact is, Hillary Clinton has a fairly significant delegate lead, and Bernie Sanders would have to win landslide after landslide starting in New York to change that math.” [Face The Nation, CBS, 4/17/16]
New York Times’s Patrick Healy and Yamiche Alcindor: Bernie Sanders needs “landslide victor[ies]” in New York, Pennsylvania, California, and other states to overtake Hillary Clinton. “The Democratic race could yet take unpredictable turns, and his campaign is vowing to win. If Mr. Sanders beats Mrs. Clinton in her adopted home state, New York, on April 19, he could raise damaging questions about her candidacy and gain more momentum. But he would still need to win a landslide victory there and in Pennsylvania, California and other states to overtake her in delegates this spring. For Mr. Sanders, the missteps of 2015 and early 2016 — leading to his delegate deficit — are the greatest drag on his recent success.” [New York Times, 4/3/16]
ABC’s Cecilia Vega: Bernie Sanders needs to win New York and other states by “huge margins.” “CECILIA VEGA: There are more delegates up for grabs here than any state so far. That is what’s on the line right now. To cut into Clinton’s delegate lead, Bernie Sanders would need to win by huge margins and not just here, Robin. He needs to start winning these delegates in the states coming up on the calendar too.” [Good Morning America, ABC, 4/18/16]
NBC’s Kristen Welker: If Bernie Sanders can’t win New York, “his chances are going to be really steep.” “KRISTEN WELKER: He’s looking at upcoming states like Pennsylvania, like Oregon where he has a really good chance of winning and like delegate-rich California. He says if he can win some of those states he could come back in the pledged delegate lead, but Steve, if he can’t win here tomorrow, his chances are going to be really steep.” [Live, MSNBC, 4/18/16]
NBC’s Mark Murray: If Hillary Clinton wins big in New York and on April 26, Bernie Sanders might need to win 78% of the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination. “If Clinton runs the table in NY and on April 26, Sanders might need to win 78% of remaining dels to hit 2383 number.” [4/18/16, 8:30 a.m. EST]
ABC News’s Jon Karl: New York is “a must-win for Bernie Sanders. No doubt.” “STEPHANOPOULOS: And the math end for Bernie Sanders if he loses New York. KARL: Yes. It is a must-win for Bernie Sanders. No doubt. And even if he wins, the delegate math is incredibly difficult — well, if he wins Wyoming and he comes out with — (CROSSTALK) KARL: — delegates, doesn’t really help him.” [This Week, ABC, 4/10/16]
New York Times’s Frank Bruni: Bernie Sanders’s “slender hopes for the Democratic nomination rest on an upset victory in the New York primary.” “But Sanders didn’t make his case with significantly more skill or force than he had in the past — and he needed to, given how much his slender hopes for the Democratic nomination rest on an upset victory in the New York primary in just a few days.” [New York Times, 4/14/16]
New York Times’s Patrick Healy: Bernie Sanders “must win big” in New York. “The senator’s assertiveness was on vivid display in Thursday’s debate with Mrs. Clinton ahead of the high-stakes New York primary on Tuesday, which Mr. Sanders must win big to dent Mrs. Clinton’s strong lead in the delegates needed for the nomination.” [New York Times, 4/16/16]
Politico’s Annie Karni: Bernie Sanders must win New York to change the dynamics of the race. “Thursday night’s Brooklyn debate is Bernie Sanders’ last chance to shake up the race in a state where he must pull off a major upset to change the dynamics of the Democratic primary.” [Politico, 4/14/16]
VICE News’s Liz Fields: New York is a “make-or-break” primary for Bernie Sanders. “Thousands of Bernie Sanders supporters swarmed across New York’s iconic Washington Square Park Wednesday night ahead of a make-or-break primary in the state on April 19.” [VICE News, 4/14/16]
Washington Post’s James Hohmann: If Hillary Clinton wins by double digits in New York, “Sanders’s path to the Democratic nomination becomes extraordinarily narrow.” “The intensity of Sunday’s campaigning underscores the stakes. If Hillary wins by double digits, which all the polls suggest she will, Sanders’s path to the Democratic nomination becomes extraordinarily narrow.” [Washington Post, 4/18/16]
The Hill described New York as a “must-win” for Bernie Sanders. “Poll: Clinton leads Sanders in must-win New York and California http://hill.cm/qgahWsz” [4/17/16, 9:01 p.m. EST]